How Certain is it that Russia Will Suspend Gas to Croatia?

How Certain is it that Russia Will Suspend Gas to Croatia?
Photo: Luka Stanzl/PIXSELL

April 27, 2022 - Economist Damir Novotny was a guest on N1 Television's ''Novom Danu'', and commented on how certain is it that Russia will suspend gas to Croatia based on recent threats to Bulgaria and Poland.

Novotny said Russia's threat to stop supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria is in some ways a warning to the entire European Union, as the Polish and Russian governments clash most verbally, reports Index.hr.

The economic analyst pointed out that he did not think that Russia would make a decision to stop supplying gas to Croatia.

"It is possible that Russia will suspend gas to Croatia, of course, but it is uncertain and we cannot predict anything because the Russian political elite is unpredictable at the moment, Putin's decisions are completely unpredictable, we cannot be sure about the direction of his decisions, especially economic ones'', said Novotny.

''He told the Russian public that the sanctions did not cause any damage to the Russian economy, which is simply not true. So I don’t believe there will be drastic blockades'', added Novotny.

What does an early warning about the gas situation mean?

He also explained what the government's early warning measure due to the gas situation means.

"This is a mechanism used by the governments of all European countries when gas storage facilities are emptied over the winter and refilled over the summer, and if the storage tenants do not refuel or do not fill it with that dynamic, prices are high and they are expected to fall over the summer to refill them, but that’s ungrateful because it’s hard to estimate gas prices at the moment. It is possible that it will start to descend during the summer, but it is not certain. All supply chains will be disrupted, Russian gas will not come to the EU market in the amount we are used to and prices will not fall over the summer'', Novotny said.

As for the norms of strategic stocks, he said that, according to publicly available information, we are below those stocks in terms of the amount of gas.

Gazprom: We are suspending gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland

Recall, Russian energy giant Gazprom claims to have cut off all gas supplies to both Bulgaria and Poland after both countries refused to start paying for deliveries in rubles.

Earlier, both Polish and Bulgarian gas suppliers said they had received official notifications from Gazprom that supplies would be suspended.

At one point early Wednesday, physical gas flows along the Yamal-Europa gas pipeline from Belarus to Poland fell to zero, but then gas supplies resumed. But then Gazprom confirmed that gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria were suspended.

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